The sinkhole risk is relatively small statewide, but property risk for some localized areas is substantial. Spatial patterns will remain similar for both hazards, but annual absolute and per capita losses are expected to increase substantially by 2050. Expansive soil risk peaks in southeastern and extreme southwestern Louisiana, and urban areas. Regarding present and future (i.e., 2050) Louisiana property risk to other non-severe-weather environmental hazards, wildfire risk peaks in west-central, east-central, extreme northwestern, and southwestern coastal Louisiana. Despite projected warming, extreme cold will remain a greater crop risk than extreme heat, though the latter often accompanies drought. Drought is and will remain a far greater risk to crops than these four hazards and extreme high temperatures, with perhaps 95 percent of the crop losses. Property risks of extreme cold temperature and hail are projected to decrease with the expected warming temperatures, with those of all four of these hazards peaking in urban areas. Results suggest that property risks associated with extreme cold temperature and tornado are and will remain costlier than those for hail and lightning. This research enhances present and future (i.e., 2050) Louisiana risk assessment using locally-weighted, model-based hazard frequency/intensity and population projections. The risks associated with non-tropical-cyclone hazards in Louisiana’s coastal zone have been understudied. Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the most vulnerable areas globally to coastal natural hazards, with risk vulnerability likely increasing. 2015) and that the DDF, flood level, and restoration duration all affect model sensitivity(McGrath et al. Sensitivity analysis on the various input functions in the flood component of Hazus has suggested that the choice of digital elevation data is important(Tate et al. 2020), and assessing community flood resilience(Allen et al. 2018), estimating modern hurricane-induced flood damage in the context of historical hurricanes (Paul and Sharif 2018), determining impacts of sea-level rise(Ghanbari et al. 2016), validating other flood estimation methods(Gutenson et al. 2012), cost-benefit analysis of floodplain conservation(Kousky and Walls 2014), evaluating potential for bridge scouring(Banks et al. 2012), assessing feasibility of flood relocation(Cummings et al. Such applications include examining the advantages of levee setbacks(Dierauer et al. 2014) and has been used widely in recent years. Hazus has been shown to be a valuable tool for flood adaptation planning(Banks et al. Among the two leading flood models, FEMA's Hazus, introduced in 1998 and now incorporating three "levels" of analysis based on the sophistication of input and output data (Figure 7.1), incorporates estimates of flood damage to structures, but also to agricultural and utility infrastructure, transportation networks, and other flood-relatedimpacts. These findings will assist decision-makers to minimize risk and enhance agricultural resilience to future weather hazards, thereby strengthening this economically-important industry in Louisiana and enhancing food security. Drought is by far the costliest among the six hazards, accounting for $56.1 million of $59.2 million (∼95%) in 2050-projected crop loss, followed by extreme cold ($1.4 million), extreme heat ($1.0 million), tornadoes ($0.4 million), hail ($0.2 million), and lightning ($0.05 million), respectively. Despite the fact that cropland is decreasing across most of the state, weather impacts to cropland are anticipated to increase substantially by 2050. The majority of crop activities occurred and will continue to occur in south-central and northeastern Louisiana along the river basins. This approach improves future crop risk assessment by incorporating historical crop loss, historical and modeled future hazard intensity, cropland extent, population, consumer demand, cropping intensity, and technological development as predictors of future risk. This research develops a method of future crop loss risk assessment due to droughts, extreme low and high temperatures, hail, lightning, and tornadoes, using Louisiana as a case study. However, most hazard impact research on agriculture to date, for Louisiana and elsewhere, has focused on floods and hurricanes. Louisiana is one of the most hazard-prone states in the U.S., and many of its people are engaged directly or indirectly in agricultural activities that are impacted by an array of weather hazards.
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